Trump Heads to Beijing: What’s Really at Stake in the Xi Summit This Week

When President Donald Trump arrives in Beijing on Wednesday, he’ll be stepping into what might be the most crucial negotiations of his second term. The Trump China visit from May 13-15 marks something historic: the first time a sitting US president has set foot in the Chinese capital in nearly nine years. The last visit? Trump himself, way back in 2017, during his first term.

But this trip feels different. This time, Trump is not travelling alone. He’s bringing along 17 of America’s most powerful business leaders, think Elon Musk from Tesla, Tim Cook from Apple, Larry Fink from BlackRock, and Kelly Ortberg, who leads Boeing. These are not only Trump’s consultants tagging along for the ride, but they’re there because Trump wants to cut deals, and he wants them cut fast.

The Real Pressure

Let’s be honest, the Trump China visit couldn’t come at a messier time. The Strait of Hormuz, one of the world’s most critical shipping routes, is blocked. Iran’s conflict has sent global oil prices through the roof, and supply chains are screaming. That’s why one of the first wins for Trump’s team came quietly in April when Defence Secretary Pete Hegseth announced that Beijing had agreed, explicitly, not to send weapons to Iran, including surface-to-air missiles.

It sounds technical, but it matters enormously. China’s willingness to make this commitment signals something crucial: both countries recognise that this summit needs to work. The ongoing energy crisis affecting Europe, Japan, and South Korea shows why. When oil prices spike because shipping lanes are contested, it ripples across the entire global economy.

Where the Money Meets Diplomacy

The Trump China visit agenda reads like a negotiator’s wish list. At the top: trade. Trump’s administration hopes to extend the trade truce reached in October. But there’s more than just maintaining the status quo here. Both sides are talking about creating a “Board of Trade”, essentially a standing committee where the US and China can keep talking, keep dealing, without the relationship spiralling into another trade war.

What might China actually buy? American soybeans. Beef. Boeing aircraft. These aren’t small potatoes. Agricultural states matter in elections, and the aerospace industry employs hundreds of thousands of Americans. Meanwhile, China gets what it needs: access to markets and goods that its own economy desperately needs right now.

There’s a cautionary note, though. Back in 2017, China announced it would invest $83.7 billion in West Virginia, a number that exceeded the entire state’s GDP. That deal basically never happened. So when both sides announce headline-grabbing investment commitments this week, observers will be forgiven for wondering: is this real, or theatre?

The Elephant in the Room

Every conversation about a Trump China visit has to address Taiwan eventually. And Taipei is nervous, genuinely nervous. Taiwan’s leadership has made clear they’re worried Trump might be swayed to soften America’s security commitments to the island. The fear? That Trump, confident in his personal rapport with Xi, might agree to language about “peaceful unification” or suggest the US “opposes” rather than simply “does not support” Taiwan independence.

What makes this so fraught is that Taiwan’s defence spending and military modernisation only work if Taipei believes Washington has their back. Undermine that confidence, and you undermine Taiwan’s incentive to invest in its own defence.

AI, Rare Earths, and the Tech Cold War

Beyond trade and geopolitics, there’s artificial intelligence. Both countries want to talk about AI safety, though for different reasons. The US wants safeguards; China sees an opportunity to expand access to American technology and know-how. This is a classic case of two countries talking past each other: same word, completely different meaning.

Then there’s the rare earth question. China controls much of the world’s supply of rare earth minerals critical for everything from electric vehicles to military hardware. In 2025, China suspended exports and imposed semiconductor bans that upended supply chains across Europe, Japan, and South Korea. How these restrictions get discussed in Beijing will matter enormously for global manufacturing.

 Why the World is Watching

Countries across Southeast Asia, Europe, and beyond are watching to see whether Washington and Beijing can find stability or whether we’re heading toward deeper decoupling. Global investors are nervous. Oil markets are volatile. Supply chains remain fragile.

According to analysis from the Centre for Strategic and International Studies, this summit is realistic about what it can achieve. Nobody’s expecting a breakthrough deal that resolves years of disputes. Instead, both sides seem focused on something more modest but perhaps more valuable: demonstrating they can manage their relationship without it blowing up.